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Weekly average price||Stainless Steel Market Summary in China (14th, Oct.-18th, Oct.)

Weekly average price||Stainless Steel Market Summary in China (14th, Oct.-18th, Oct.)

-304/2B:
The average price of 2.0*1219*C (slit edge) of ZPSS in the Wuxi market is US$2,215/MT(plus taxes) which is US7/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.31%. Besides, the average price of 2.0*1219*C(slit edge) in the Foshan market is US$2,250/MT(plus taxes) which is also US$7/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.3%.

-304/2B: 
This week, the average price of 2.0*1240*C(mill edge) of Hongwang in the Wuxi market is US$2,140/MT(plus taxes) which is US$7/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.32%. What's more, the average price of 2.0*1240*C(mill edge) in the Foshan market is US$2,115/MT(plus taxes) which is US7/MT lower than last week and the falling percentage is 0.32%.

-304/No.1: 
The average price of 4.0*1520*C (mill edge) of ESS in the Wuxi market is US$2,065/MT(plus taxes) which is US11/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.53%. Furthermore, the average price of 8.0*1520*C(mill edge) in the Foshan market is US$2070/MT(plus taxes) which is US3/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.13%.

-316L/2B: 
This week, the average price of 2.0*1219*C of TISCO in the Wuxi market is US$3130/MT(plus taxes) which is 29USD/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.85%. Moreover, the average price of 2.0*1219*C(slit edge) of TISCO in the Foshan market is US$3170/MT(plus taxes) which is 29USD/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.84%.

-316L/No.1: 
This week, the average price of 4.0*1500*C(mill edge) of ESS in the Wuxi market is US$2965/MT(plus taxes) which is US$10/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.31%. What's more, the average price of 4.0*1500*C(mill edge) in the Foshan market is US$2985/MT(plus taxes) which is US$20/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.63%.

-LH/2B:
This week, the average price of 1.0*1219*C(mill edge) of the Wuxi market is US$1,145/MT(plus taxes) which is US$1/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.12%. Besides, the tax-inclusive average price of the Foshan market is US$1,120/MT(mill edge) which is US$6/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.51%.

-430/2B: 
The average price of 2.0*1219*C(slit edge) of TISCO in the Wuxi market is US$1,170, which is US$7/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.61 %. The average price of 2.0*1219*C(slit edge) in the Foshan market is US$1,155/MT(plus taxes) which is US$4/MT higher than last week and the rising percentage is 0.37 %.


The inventory of Nickel fell 40%, but the price plummeted 700 dollars. Why?



In recent days, the sudden drop in nickel has caused the market to be unpredictable, directly breaking the previous predicted bullish sentiment. Since October, the market has rumored that domestic giant steel mills are constantly buying nickel from the LME exchange. According to the latest data released by the LME, the inventory has decreased by 63,400 tons from the end of September with a drop of over 40%.

The nickel price trend is abnormal.

The market believed that the large-scale purchase of nickel by domestic giant steel mills is bullish for the market outlook, but what is surprising is that nickel prices have not been as strong as expected, and there has been a sharp decline. Some analysts said that probably it has been attacked by many “short” positions,so it led to a fall in prices.

However, some analysts referred that it is just a feint shot, and  taking the opportunity to buy low-priced raw materials suppress the price of nickel, and when no one is willing to take over the market when the price is falling then the price will rapidly rise, and the short-selling is instantaneous, which achieves the purpose of pulling up.

High nickel-iron has risen, Why is supply scarce?

From the perspective of the raw material market, it seems to confirm this logic. From the beginning of September to now, the price of high-nickel iron has risen from the ex-factory price of 1,100 yuan/nickel to the current price of 1,270 yuan/nickel, which was 15% growth.

Although the rise of nickel prices in August had a good influence on high-nickel iron, However, the shock of nickel prices in September failed to give too much pressure on the high-nickel iron market, and the price continued to rise.

Indonesian nickel mine is forbidden, and nickel-iron is hot.



On 1st January 2020, the Indonesian mine ban policy will be officially implemented, which means that the Indonesian nickel mine will be cut off in the Chinese market in 2020.

The industry analysts said that the supply capacity of nickel ore in the Philippines is not as good as that the Indonesia mine ban happens in 2014. On the other hand, the small number of high-nickel resources in the Philippines have been exhausted gradually.

A while ago, it was reported that the largest high-grade nickel mine in the Philippines, LANGUYAN, will stop mining in October. The mine's annual shipment capacity is 7.2 million tons, accounting for more than 17% of the Philippines' annual export volume of 41.87 million tons. The average nickel grade is above 1.5%. Besides, another mine named ANC is also facing the pressure of depletion of resources. Although it has not been officially shut down, it has no high-grade ore output.

The shortage of nickel ore supply in 2020 will be the general trend. If nickel and nickel-iron raw materials can be held in the hand, the cost of stainless steel raw materials will be effectively controlled. The recent market rumors that a steel mill in Jiangsu hoards hundreds of thousands of tons of stainless steel products may be real.

Market changes are impermanent, and operations should be cautious.

About the nickel market, although the LME nickel stocks have experienced a sharp decline in the short-term, the market has not shown an upward trend. Some analysts think that the disappeared stocks are only bought by some of the big mills and turned into hidden stocks. It does not constitute a positive factor. Also, it is also possible to hedge by other operations that buying nickel is only a surface phenomenon of the market.

Some analysts in the industry said that the current price of nickel is still at a high level. According to the current price, many nickel producers have greater profits, and It is unclear how much nickel will be available in the market. Maybe many nickel companies will continue to undersell nickel to collect the money shortly. So for the nickel price, it is undoubtedly a bad factor.

 

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